When people actually find out what’s in the Senate bill, most of it tests positively. Nate Silver breaks it down, bit by bit. People don’t like the mandate or the overall price tag, but they like almost everything else about it, giving it an overall +22 net favorable rating. Unfortunately, Silver also reveals that rarely did over 50-60% of people even know about the provisions they liked so much.
Of course, the Democratic politician doesn’t think, “Wow, this bill has some great stuff people will like that I can sell without breaking a sweat!” They think, “Run away!!!” Obama’s State of the Union is well-positioned to course-correct here, but there ain’t a soul gettin’ their hopes too high. My forecast: 65% chance of reclaiming the baton, 35% chance of boilerplate that doesn’t change anything.